Tables

  1. Avis Actual & Estimated Volume
  2. Mexico Avocado Harvest Program
  3. AVIS - Avocado Market Volume
  4. US Inventory by Avocado Size
  5. USDA Prices FOB Texas Crossing
  6. AMS - Stores promoting Avocados

Graphs

  1. Weekly Crossings - Mexico, Peru, California
  2. Weekly Mexican Prices & Totals

Avocado Intelligence

The avocado business is volatile and predicting the market is key to maximizing profits. It is not unusual for the price to change by 25% in just 7 days! The information in the charts on this page enables us to predict those price swings.

Another factor that adds risk is that growers insist on a price for a fruit of a certain weight in grams and up. Often only a portion of the harvest can be sold at a profit, and that number has to be high enough to offset losses on sizes less in demand.

Price volatility is driven primarily by the following factors

  • Continued growth in demand for this delicious and nutritious fruit.
  • Too many packing houses competing for supply.
  • Harvest flexibility, fruit does not ripen on the trees. As a result, growers can hold their crop for the best price.
  • Importers selling to retailers need to fulfill their commitments.
Read more about avocado price volitility factors

1. Avis Actual & Estimated Volume

This show both actual and projected volumes for the key growing countries. Weekly consumption is 40 million pounds at very high prices and up to 55 million pounds at promotable prices.

2. Mexico Avocado Harvest Program

This table shows the cuts (cortes) authorized in Michoacan and Jalisco orchards (huertas), for the current day. The inventory figure covers only Mexican fruit. When that figure nears 25,000 mt, we find that the market is undersupplied, until the price has skyrocketed. In 2022, the price fell from higher than 80.00 in the Spring to 23.50 at the end of September. A price change of 25% in 7 days is nothing unusual in the avocado business.

3. AVIS - Avocado Market Volume

Information from the Hass Avocado Board, which complies info of shipments to the USA from all supplying countries.

4. US Inventory by Size

Inventory by size, reported by California growers. The number includes fruit from all sources, and is indicative as the Cal growers account for 60% of the total market.

5. USDA Prices FOB Texas Crossing

USDA prices from importers at border.

6. AMS - Stores promoting Avocados

Number of stores featuring avocados.

Total volume in truckloads, the same info as table 1 in graph form. If one were to look further backwards, dramatic spikes up and down would be seen. If growers refuse to cut, it pays to be buying on the right side of that event.

Price according to supply from all sources.